🌎 Global Economic & Market Snapshot
🇺🇸 United States
- Goods Trade Balance: -$85.99B (better than -$98.20B prior)
- Consumer Confidence: 97.2 vs 95.0 expected
- JOLTS Job Openings (June): 7.437M vs 7.5M expected
- ADP Employment: 104K vs 75K forecast
- GDP Q2: +3.0% vs +2.4% estimate
- Pending Home Sales: -0.8% vs +0.3% expected
- Initial Jobless Claims: 218K vs 224K estimate
- Core PCE YoY (June): 2.8% vs 2.7% expected
- Weekly Crude Oil Inventory: +7.698M barrels vs -1.288M forecast
- Fed Decision: Rates held at 4.25%–4.50%
- Non-Farm Payrolls (July): 73K vs 106K forecast
- Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (in line; prior 4.1%)
- Average Hourly Earnings MoM: +0.3% (in line; prior +0.2%)
🇪🇺 Eurozone
- Germany Retail Sales: +1% m/m vs +0.5% expected
- Germany Q2 GDP: -0.1% q/q (in line)
- Germany CPI YoY: 2% vs 1.9% expected
- Germany Unemployment Change: +2K vs +15K expected
- France Q2 GDP: +0.3% vs +0.1% expected
- Eurozone Q2 GDP: +0.1% vs 0.0% expected
🇨🇦 Canada
- Bank of Canada: Rates unchanged at 2.75%
🇯🇵 Japan
- Retail Sales YoY: +2% vs +1.8% expected
- Industrial Production MoM: +1.7% vs -0.6% expected
- Manufacturing PMI: 48.9 vs 50.1 (contractionary)
- BoJ Policy: Short-term rate held at 0.5%
🇨🇳 China
- Manufacturing PMI: 49.3 vs 49.7 expected (contractionary)
- Gold ETFs: Outflows of 3.2B yuan ($450M) in July
- CSI 300 Index: +5%
- Industrial Profits: -4.3% YoY in June; -1.8% H1 2025
🤝 US-EU Trade Deal
- US and EU agreed on a 15% tariff rate and EU commitments to buy more US energy.
- Germany criticized the deal as unfavorable, warning about economic burden and uncertain US investments.
- France also criticized the EU’s weak negotiating stance; President Macron called for the use of “anti-coercion” measures.
🏦 Institutional Insights
- UBS: Cautions investors not to get too comfortable with the trade truce.
- JP Morgan: Expects no Fed move in September unless data shifts significantly.
- PIMCO: Notes rising core PCE inflation suggests underlying pressures.
⚠️ Global Tensions & Tariffs
- Trump raised Canadian tariffs to 35% and added 25% on India, calling India and Russia “dead economies.”
- Russia’s Medvedev warned of possible escalation; Trump responded with threats.
📊 Earnings Highlights
- Meta: Revenue +16% to $47.52B; EPS $7.14 – strong AI & Reels growth.
- Amazon: Revenue +11% to $167.7B; EPS $1.68 – AWS & ads offset weaker e-commerce.
- Microsoft: Revenue +10% to $76.4B; EPS $3.65 – Azure & enterprise AI outperformance.
- Apple: Revenue +7% to $94.0B; EPS $1.57 – services & wearables lead, FX pressure in China.
📉 Market Moves
- Gold: On track for 3rd consecutive weekly drop, breaking below triangle pattern.
Dow Jones: Appears to be forming a triple top around 45,000, with key support at 43,700.
VIX: Bounced off the rising trendline, signaling a possible surge in volatility this August.
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Full VIP signals performance report for September 22–26, 2025:
