• “Here’s What You Missed This Week”

Weekly Outlook
Summary: Markets on Edge Amid Inflation Data and Rate Speculation

The second week of August was dominated by key U.S. economic data, which set the tone for global markets. Investors closely dissected every inflation release for hints on the Federal Reserve’s next moves, resulting in heightened volatility and adjustments to interest rate expectations.

The week opened cautiously, with markets trading sideways as they awaited Tuesday’s critical U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. U.S. index futures (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100) posted modest gains, reflecting restrained optimism. Meanwhile, the dollar softened against major currencies, including the pound (GBP/USD), amid expectations that a moderate CPI reading could bolster the case for a September Fed rate cut.

Tuesday, 12th August: CPI Boost Sparks Optimism
Tuesday proved pivotal. July CPI data fueled market enthusiasm, with headline year-on-year inflation holding steady at 2.7%, in line with forecasts. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained higher at 3.1%, but the market’s focus on the headline figure reinforced hopes that inflationary pressures were easing, suggesting the Fed might soon begin an easing cycle.

Market Reaction:

S&P 500 and Dow Jones rose 1.1%, while the Nasdaq surged 1.4%, hitting new all-time highs.
The dollar index (DXY) fell, closing at 98.02.

Wednesday, 13th August: Rally Consolidates
Markets continued higher, though with reduced momentum. Positive sentiment from the CPI reading lingered, with investors almost fully pricing in a September rate cut. The absence of major economic data allowed the rally to consolidate.

Thursday, 14th August: Inflation Surprises Curb Gains
Optimism was tempered by July’s Producer Price Index (PPI), which rose 0.9% month-on-month, far above the anticipated 0.2%. This reignited inflation concerns, challenging the notion that price pressures were under control. Market responses included:

Indices opening lower, with the Nasdaq closing at 2,832 points.
The dollar rebounding, with the DXY rising 0.41%.

Weekly unemployment claims remained low at 224k, highlighting a resilient labor market that could give the Fed flexibility to maintain restrictive rates if inflation persists.

Technical Outlook – GBP/USD
The pound gained strength against the dollar, breaking above the bearish trendline at 1.3750 and the 50-day moving average, peaking at 1.3580 before a slight pullback.

Bullish Scenario: Maintaining above the 50-day moving average would confirm the breakout, potentially targeting 1.3580 resistance and testing 1.3750.
Bearish Scenario: Falling below the 50-day moving average would validate a “double top” at 1.3850, pointing toward support at 1.3380.

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Full VIP signals performance report for September 22–26, 2025:

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S&P 500
The S&P 500 maintained its bullish trajectory, reaching a new all-time high after finding support around 6,235. The index extended its rally to 6,480 but formed a “Doji” candlestick, indicating market indecision.

Bullish Scenario: If momentum continues, the index could retest 6,480, with potential upside targets at 6,500 and 6,550.
Bearish Scenario: The “Doji” may signal a temporary pause, with a possible “higher low” forming near 6,346.

WTI Crude Oil
WTI crude continues its long-term downtrend, struggling to break above $71 and slipping below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, finding support at $62.83.

Bullish Scenario: Holding above $62.83 could see a move toward $65.60 and $67.70.
Bearish Scenario: A breach below $62.83 may drive WTI down to $60.90 support.