In August, Switzerland faced one of the highest US tariffs globally, set at 39%, which put significant pressure on the Swiss economy. However, discussions about lowering import duties to 15% provided support for the Swiss franc. Let’s examine this situation and outline a trading plan for the USD/CHF pair.
This article covers:
- Key Takeaways
- Weekly Fundamental Forecast for the Swiss Franc
- Weekly USD/CHF Trading Plan
Key Takeaways
- The Swiss franc is experiencing significant volatility.
- The Swiss National Bank (SNB) may intervene in the Forex market.
- The franc benefits from its safe-haven status.
- The USD/CHF pair could be sold, targeting 0.792 and 0.787.
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for the Swiss Franc
In 2025, the Swiss franc showed wide fluctuations. By mid-September, USD/CHF dropped to a 14-year low due to mounting political and trade uncertainty and a weakening US dollar. Later, reassessment of the federal funds rate outlook, coupled with slowing Swiss inflation, shifted investor sentiment, pushing the pair to a three-month high. Still, speculation about a potential tariff reduction moderated these expectations.
During the autumn, the franc’s strength was a central topic in Forex discussions, with possible currency interventions receiving significant attention. Societe Generale noted that the risks of SNB intervention were at their peak, while UBS reported that the central bank had already been buying foreign currency and selling francs. Regulatory authorities indicated readiness to act, relying on proven past strategies. Yet, monetary policy remains the main tool for managing financial stability.
The SNB’s exact role in the USD/CHF rally in late October and early November remains uncertain. Reports suggest the main driver was the negative impact of US tariffs on Switzerland’s economy. The 39% tariff slowed GDP growth and increased unemployment. Additionally, inflation fell sharply to 0.1%, a level unforeseen by Bloomberg analysts. This scenario raised the likelihood of the SNB returning to negative interest rates, putting downward pressure on the franc.
Swiss Inflation Change
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Source: Bloomberg
The differing monetary policies of Japan and Switzerland prompted Japanese traders to sell the Swiss franc heavily. They aggressively expanded their short positions to record levels, expecting the Bank of Japan to raise its overnight rate while the Swiss National Bank cut its interest rates.
Speculative Positions on the Swiss Franc
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Source: Bloomberg
The franc’s oversold status has benefited USD/CHF bears. Former President Donald Trump announced plans to reduce tariffs, noting that the current rate may be excessively high and emphasizing that Switzerland should continue to prosper. While exact figures were not provided, the Wall Street Journal reported that tariffs are expected to drop from 39% to 15%.
Addressing this primary threat to the Swiss franc is likely to restore its strength, especially with the growing possibility that the Supreme Court may eliminate universal tariffs. This development has increased demand for safe-haven assets. However, the US dollar is currently viewed as a riskier currency due to elevated interest rates, and the Japanese yen is declining amid risk-hedging from Japanese equity investments. Consequently, the Swiss franc remains the primary safe-haven currency to buy.
Weekly USD/CHF Trading Plan
With the likelihood of a December federal funds rate cut amid a cooling US economy, a decline in USD/CHF appears probable. While the pair trades below 0.8000, short positions are recommended, with targets at 0.792 and 0.787.
This forecast is based on fundamental analysis, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, geopolitical and economic developments, statistical data, and historical market trends.
USD/CHF Current Rate in the Forex Market:
- USD/CHF: ₣0.79917
- Sell: 0.79916
- Buy: 0.79917
- Sentiment: 86%
- 1-Day Change: -0.36 (-0.00292%)
[Open the chart – Real-time USD/CHF Price Chart]
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the official stance of LiteFinance. The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice under Directive 2014/65/EU.
This article is protected under copyright law and constitutes intellectual property. Unauthorized copying or distribution of its content is strictly prohibited.
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Not profitable? Don’t worry! Join our copy trading system where we provide lower risk returns. Benefits of Joining Us:
-Lesser Risk as lot size is minimal
-Higher returns (approx. 5% to 10% monthly)
-Easy Deposit and Withdrawal with USDT using crypto wallets
-Lesser Drawdown
-Instant Support
-Invest Now and get guaranteed returns with us. DM us for more info❤️
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*Copy Trading is free but we charge some percentage of profit as fees.*
Full VIP signals performance report for September 22–26, 2025:
