The third trading week of August has the potential to mark both a period of transition and heightened anticipation across global financial markets.
Following last week’s discussions between U.S. and Russian leadership regarding a possible resolution to the Russia–Ukraine conflict, investors may adopt a cautious approach until clearer signals emerge about whether the long-running war is nearing an end. The Ukrainian President’s scheduled visit to the White House on Monday may provide fresh insight. As a result, market sentiment could shift quickly if meaningful progress—or setbacks—becomes evident.
On the economic front, the week gradually intensifies, with inflation, consumption, and manufacturing data taking center stage. However, the main spotlight falls on the Jackson Hole Symposium at week’s end, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks could shape market expectations for the remainder of the year—particularly if he hints at when the Fed may resume interest-rate cuts.
Tuesday, 19 August — New Zealand Interest Rate Decision
The week kicks off with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate announcement. Markets expect a 25-basis-point cut, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.00%.
If delivered, this would mark a continuation of the easing cycle that began exactly a year ago when rates were at 5.50%. Traders will closely watch the NZD/USD reaction, especially if the central bank surprises with a more cautious or aggressive stance.
Wednesday, 20 August — UK Inflation & FOMC Minutes
Midweek trading will revolve around inflation and monetary policy.
The UK releases its Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the morning, with expectations pointing to an annual inflation rate of 3.7%. This data will be critical for shaping Bank of England policy discussions—particularly after recent internal disagreements over whether rates can be lowered further.
This reading is likely to influence GBP/USD and the FTSE 100.
Later, markets will turn to the Federal Reserve’s latest FOMC minutes. Investors will dissect the document for signals on how policymakers view inflation trends and the future of U.S. interest rates. No major surprises are expected, but even subtle language shifts could offer clues ahead of Powell’s Friday appearance.
Thursday, 21 August — Final Data Before the Main Event
Thursday’s releases provide the last major economic inputs before Jackson Hole.
Key data include:
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (PMI): projected at 49.9
- Weekly unemployment claims: expected at 227,000
These numbers may influence the U.S. Dollar and S&P 500, especially if they deviate from expectations.
Corporate earnings also draw attention, with Walmart reporting before the U.S. market open. Consensus estimates include:
- EPS: $0.72
- Revenue: $175.68 billion
Any significant beat or miss could spark volatility in the stock and broader retail sector.
As traders prepare for Powell’s speech, markets may remain cautious with limited movement.
Friday, 22 August — All Eyes on Jackson Hole
The financial world will focus squarely on Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
His remarks could set the tone for markets in the weeks ahead:
- A hawkish message, emphasizing persistent inflation risks and the need to maintain restrictive policy, could strengthen the dollar and weigh heavily on equities.
- A dovish tone, highlighting progress on inflation and acknowledging signs of slowing U.S. economic activity, may fuel a strong equity rally and weaken the dollar.
Volatility is expected to spike during and after the speech, as investors gauge whether the Fed is preparing to shift policy direction.
If you’d like, I can also create a shorter “newsletter version” or a more punchy headline-style summary.
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