WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
Analysis & Key Events • July 28 – August 1, 2025
Summary
This week kicks off with a landmark US–EU trade deal, featuring $750B in energy purchases and $600B in American investments, setting the tone for a week packed with major economic data and central bank decisions.
This development is likely to influence key FX pairs, commodities, and indices. The EUR/USD could experience increased volatility due to shifts in trade balance sentiment, while USD/JPY may rise amid growing risk appetite.
US Indices
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones could benefit from the $600B injection into infrastructure and defense sectors.
Europe
Germany 40 may see gains as EU export prospects improve.
Commodities
Oil and natural gas prices could rally on expectations of higher US energy exports.
Key Events This Week
- JOLTS Job Openings
- Fed Rate Decision
- Bank of Canada Rate Decision
- Bank of Japan Rate Decision
- Core PCE Index
- US Jobs Report
- Major Tech Earnings
Daily Outlook
Monday, July 28
Although Monday may appear quiet, the week effectively began with Sunday’s announcement of a historic US–EU trade deal.
Highlights:
- 15% tariff on EU goods entering the US.
- EU commitments:
- $750B in US energy purchases.
- $600B investment in US infrastructure and defense.
Tuesday, July 29 – JOLTS Job Openings
Expected: 7.49M openings (down from 7.769M previously).
Market impact:
Stronger-than-expected job openings would indicate a tight labor market, giving the Fed room to keep rates elevated, potentially supporting the US dollar.
Wednesday, July 30
- Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Expected to hold at 2.75% amid strong jobs data and tariff-related uncertainty.
- Federal Reserve Rate Decision: Rates likely unchanged; focus on Powell’s press conference and statement language.
- Wildcard scenario: An unexpected rate cut could disrupt markets, raise credibility concerns, and inject uncertainty.
Thursday, July 31
- Bank of Japan Rate Decision: Expected steady at 0.50%, with policy patience maintained until stronger wage growth emerges.
- Core PCE Price Index: Expected 0.3% MoM / 2.7% YoY. A hotter reading may signal persistent inflation, delaying rate cuts.
Friday, August 1
- July US Jobs Report:
- Non-Farm Payrolls: 110K (vs. 147K prior)
- Unemployment Rate: 4.1%
- Avg Hourly Earnings: +0.3% MoM
This report will guide the Fed’s policy direction, influencing rate-cut expectations.
- Big Tech Earnings:
- Meta Platforms (META)
- Microsoft (MSFT)
- Apple (AAPL)
- Amazon (AMZN)
Strong earnings could counter macro uncertainties, while weak results may pressure broader indices.
Technical Outlook – Germany 40
A potential Bull Bat harmonic pattern is forming, with the 0.886 Fibonacci level around 24,550 serving as key resistance. Price behavior near this level will test the pattern’s validity, with a decisive break potentially negating the setup. While the overall structure is supportive, recent price action since June remains cautious.
Dollar Index
The Dollar Index shows early signs of a possible reversal with the emergence of a new higher low, though the overall trend remains bearish. A sustained break and close above the 100 level would be required to confirm a true trend shift.
On the fundamentals side, this week is pivotal, with market attention focused on the Fed’s messaging, which is expected to heavily influence the dollar’s next move.
Tesla
Tesla’s daily chart shows signs of a potential bear flag forming, with the price consolidating after the recent downward move—a characteristic pattern of this setup.
A break below 300 would likely confirm the bearish continuation, paving the way for further declines. Conversely, a decisive move above 370 would invalidate the pattern and refocus attention on upside potential.
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Full VIP signals performance report for September 22–26, 2025:
