Global Economic Snapshot
China
- CPI: 0.2% y/y (expected 0%)
- PPI: -2.1% y/y (expected -2.2%)
- Retail Sales (YoY): 2.9% (exp 2.7%)
- Industrial Production (YoY): 4.9% (exp 5.5%)
United States
- Weekly crude oil inventories: +6413K vs +1960K expected
- ADP Employment: -11,250
Eurozone
- Industrial production: +0.2% m/m (expected +0.7%)
- Germany ZEW: 38.5 (expected 41.0)
United Kingdom
- Q3 GDP: +0.1% (expected +0.2%)
- Unemployment rate: 5.0% (expected 4.9%)
Australia
- October unemployment rate: 4.3% (expected 4.4%, prior 4.5%)
Japan
- PPI: +0.4% m/m (exp +0.3%), +2.7% y/y (exp +2.5%)
China Suspends Export Ban on Critical Metals
China has lifted its year-long export ban on gallium, germanium, and other key metals used in semiconductors and defense, originally imposed citing national security in December 2024. Controls on dual-use graphite exports to the US have also been paused. This follows recent suspensions on rare earth elements and lithium battery materials, easing supply concerns for chipmakers and defense industries. The moves indicate a strategic easing of trade tensions amid ongoing US export restrictions on advanced technology.
China additionally suspended special port fees on US-linked vessels for one year, further signaling improving bilateral relations.
Bank of Japan: October Meeting Highlights
The BOJ’s meeting summary indicates growing consensus for continued rate normalization, with policymakers divided on timing. Some members urge further hikes if inflation and wage patterns persist, while others stress caution until active wage-setting is confirmed. There is concern that delaying hikes could result in sharper future adjustments, especially as Japan navigates currency volatility and a new fiscal stance.
Goldman Sachs on AI Investment Boom
Goldman Sachs compares the current AI-driven investment cycle to the late 1990s internet buildout rather than the 1999–2000 speculative peak. The bank sees a sustained productivity and infrastructure phase with room for growth, contingent on steady macroeconomic conditions. Strong returns are not guaranteed, but momentum appears solid.
Nomura Forecasts Fed Pause in December
Nomura expects the Fed to hold interest rates steady at the December 9–10 meeting, citing a firm labor market and Powell’s hawkish tone. This diverges from market consensus calling for another rate cut. The December pause may amplify political scrutiny with President Trump likely to oppose what he sees as premature restraint ahead of the election year.
Fed Officials on Inflation and Policy
Fed members broadly agree that inflation remains elevated, and policy should stay restrictive except for dissenting views like Miran’s, who considers current measures too tight. Key officials warn inflation is persistent and deem cutting rates in December premature.
Trump Signs Shutdown Reopening Bill
The government reopened after a historic 43-day shutdown. Trump acknowledges economic damage and calls for filibuster termination to prevent future impasses. He emphasizes restoring health care funding and direct payments.
Microsoft Incorporates OpenAI Chip Designs
Microsoft plans to use OpenAI’s custom AI chip designs to accelerate its in-house hardware development. The expanded partnership grants Microsoft access to OpenAI’s chip research through 2030 and AI models through 2032, enhancing competitiveness in AI infrastructure.
Oil Surges Following Drone Strike
Oil prices rose over 2% after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged Russia’s Novorossiysk Black Sea terminal, threatening roughly 2.2 million barrels per day of crude exports. Brent and WTI both posted gains amid heightened supply risk.
Market Highlights
Disney shares plunged 8%, hitting the lowest since May following earnings disappointment. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq brace for back-to-back weekly declines amid inflation fears and caution over central bank policy. Gold reclaimed the $4,000 level but failed to surpass $4,230.
Disclaimer
The information in this article is for general information only and does not represent financial or investment advice. Markets are unpredictable, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions, please do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on this content.
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