The US Dollar slipped across the board as weaker-than-expected US economic data kept the prospect of a September Federal Reserve interest rate cut alive, amid growing concerns about the state of the world’s largest economy.
The greenback closed the week 0.5% lower against a basket of currencies, as traders raised their bets not only for a September rate cut—the first of the year—but also for another cut by the end of 2023.
According to CME FedWatch, money markets are pricing in an 84% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, with another potential cut in December.
Following the latest bearish signals, the Dollar weakened to $1.17 against the Euro and $1.35 against the British Pound, while holding steady at ¥147.50 versus the Japanese Yen.
However, the dollar found little support on Friday, despite data showing solid retail sales growth in July and a rebound in US import prices, largely driven by higher costs for consumer goods.
Traders are now looking ahead to this week’s Unemployment Claims and the Jackson Hole symposium for further clues on the Fed’s next move.
Signs of softness in the US labor market, coupled with potential inflationary pressures from trade tariffs, could present a challenge for the Fed as it navigates its rate cut decisions.
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